Edo forthcoming gubernatorial election is sure full of intrigues embroiled in twist and turns. The time they say waits for no one.
Already activities around the world are gradually picking up amid the global pandemic.
Edo is not left out as political activities are gearing up for a full electoral campaign. Already the social media has been the battleground for the Edo 2020 gubernatorial elections.
Heavy electoral missiles are being fired across the divides. Some casualties here and there with some strong alliances made as well.
But the bitter reality is ready to dawn on us, and what might that be?
Who picks up the APC Gubernatorial ticket?
This first question is the foundation for any further questions to be asked. Whoever picks up the ticket would go a long way in giving a fair forecast on how the battle would eventually play out.
Obaseki winning APC's ticket ends the whole discussion. In summary that would be the end of the elections to a large extent.
No matter how spiteful majority of APC members are of Obaseki they would lose interest in the battle against Obaseki's return.
Let me even tell you the truth, Obaseki winning APC ticket would bring out the "real deal" in Obaseki which definitely no APC member would wish to witness, if you feel they would spend their time campaigning for the PDP in protest votes then you are deluding yourself, they would use the energy to relocate away from Edo State.
If Obaseki gets APC's ticket then it means there is no vacancy at Dennis Osadebe Avenue.
If Obaseki gets kicked out of APC what next?
This second question is pregnant with two babies.
Is Obaseki getting the PDP's ticket or is Obaseki settling for a fresh party?
Let us start with the latter if Obaseki goes for a fresh ticket.
Take note that in my analysis I refer to Adams Oshiomhole and his super 4 aspirants as one, Chris Ogiemwonyi, Pius Odubu, Osagie Ize-Iyamu and Charles Airhavbere.
Henceforth I would refer to these five gladiators as Team Oshiomhole. As a matter of fact, it is a battle against Obaseki by Oshiomhole and the fantastic four.
Obaseki getting the ticket of a fresh party would actually spell instant disaster for Obaseki.
Obaseki no doubt has a good support base from some of the masses, Obaseki's popularity is strictly out of the dummy sold that it is a battle against Godfatherism and sharing of the state resources.
Edolites at times can be swayed with the idea that no man is God. Actually, this was what worked in favour of Adams Oshiomhole to a certain extent just that the major difference with Oshiomhole's first four years and Obaseki's current four years was that Oshiomhole did a lot of projects in Edo State that his memories are indelible.
Obaseki has played that card so well that today with the atom project's achieved( only a microscopic lens can see ) by Obaseki some of the masses still don't care. All they want is no more Agbero and Godfatherism. They have failed to see that in the fight against Godfatherism, Obaseki has made himself a Hitler and has repackaged Agbero with half baked miscreants as the new street lords in Benin City.
These Obaseki's supporters sadly are not committed, voters.
Votes in this part of our world are PURCHASED through mobilization by various interest groups and influential bodies.
They are the ones that go street to street and campaign for the electorates to come out and exercise their franchise.
They are responsible for about 70% of the votes irrespective of the divides.
Obaseki is currently at war with every single organization that influences votes in the State. From the professional organizations to the informal organizations and also the unorthodox associations as well.
Obaseki sins are same everywhere total alienation and complete lack of regards for others.
Obaseki looks everyone like a Vulture ready to prey or share the State resources with him, he doesn't need advice and they should stay away from him.
Let me drop a few instances for the wise to ponder about.
Recently during the coronavirus pandemic the Nigeria Medical Association, NMA Edo State branch criticized Obaseki on his response to the crisis they also criticized the sordid state of health facilities in the State.
Next, the association of resident doctors issued Obaseki a 48 hours notice on the poor state of the specialist hospitals in the State.
On same crisis, the Nigerian Bar Association Edo State branch frowned also at his handling of the crisis, and the mobile court operations.
During the same lockdown, the NURTW in the State staged a protest against Obaseki's highhandedness.
These are just a few points raised to bring to light the consequences of the above actions by various influential bodies in the state.
It would interest you to know that the headship of all these agencies always has a political undertone, all bodies underwent most times a democratic way in electing their representatives which is similar to a general election.
Every leadership of these organizations too are political in response to the society any little sign of dissent no matter the guise is a clear show of resentment to the authority in power.
Now to make matters worse Obaseki's aides have started dumping him in turns. Once the announcement comes in that Obaseki is on his way out of the APC then the cremation would take place on Obaseki's political ambition.
Team Oshiomhole would not spare Obaseki, it would be a sad case and worse than the Ambode's experience.
If Obaseki goes to a fresh party then the PARTY is all over.
If Obaseki gets the PDP's ticket?
Sincerely speaking if Obaseki can have his way with a PDP ticket then it is PARTY after PARTY.
This forecast would be difficult to pronounce presently because the outcome of the unified primaries meant to kick Obaseki out of the APC would go a long way to determine where the victory would swing to.
If APC does not get it right and Obaseki goes to a fresh party the Governor may likely loose to the APC or PDP candidate, but if APC does not get it right and Obaseki clinches the PDP's ticket then the battle would be likely won by PDP.
PDP has the party structure to deliver a state, so many things make a party structure and number one and most important of that is having a state executive for all the wards in the State.
As long as the PDP has its ward executives scattered around the state then only the ignorant would say the party has no structure.
The only stumbling block in the PDP to Obaseki's chances is the energetic Ogbeide Ihama who defeated Obaseki in his unit and ward in the last General elections.
If Ogbeide-Ihama pulls out of the PDP with Obaseki's entrance then Obaseki's journey to the PDP might be truncated.
Summary
If Obaseki can survive the onslaught from Team Oshiomhole in the APC then it is a straight win at the general elections come September 19th.
Obaseki has an 80% victory in APC.
If Obaseki happens to find himself in PDP and retains Ogbeide-Ihama then he has a 50% chance of winning the general elections.
If Obaseki, however, finds himself in a fresh party then the odds against Obaseki is 80 %, Obaseki would not even have up to the projected 20%.
This is a personal evaluation and subject to no affiliation with any political body or individual.
Osigwe Omo-Ikirodah writes in from Benin City and works at iReporteronline
Comments here are solely the responsibility of the commenters